Euro 2020 Bracket: Breaking down 173 user predictions using Tableau Visualizations
Here’s how each of the 173 users predicted each group in the tournament. Belgium were the most popular group winners, but Spain were the most favoured side overall in the Group Stages:
Average group rankings from the 173 predictions are given here:
From the averages of every user’s predictions, I ranked the nations from 1-24 heading into the tournament.
I also prepared individual country reports for more detail. You can interact with the Tableau Public Dashboard here:
24. Hungary- Drawn as the outsider in the Group of Death, only three users predicted Hungary to reach the Round of 16. Stranger things have happened… 
23. North Macedonia Placed in a slightly friendlier draw than Hungary, but they enter the tournament as major underdogs. Could the fairytale be possible? 
22. Slovakia- One more user had Slovakia reaching the knockout stages than North Macedonia 
21. Finland- One person will be scoring a lot of points if Finland manage to make a cup run 
20. Czech Republic- 23.7% of people believe Czech Republic will make the knockout stages. Beating the second knockout stage seemed a bridge too far for even their most optimistic pundits, though 
19. Scotland- Slightly more favoured as the 3rd placed team out of Group D than Czech Republic but most have them meeting Spain or Netherlands in the first knockout round. I guess Scott McTominay FC is bigger than Tomas Soucek FC for now 
18. Wales- Wales have done pretty well here for the clear outside pick in Group A. 85.0% have them in the bottom 2 of their group but those who had them progressing sometimes found them in half-decent R16 draws. Like me, a few people seem to fondly remember that run in Euro 2016 
17. Switzerland- Feels like Switzerland have been a consistent knockouts team in international football for a while now, even if their key players are just passing their peak now. 53.8% have them in the knockout stages and a few have them slipping through easier draws 
16. Russia- The clear third-favourites from Group B, but having seen how good they were in 2018, a few have backed Russia to make another cup run. 71.1% have them finishing 3rd in Group B 
15. Austria- Some really good Bundesliga players hanging around Austria’s national setup this year. Austria’s average group ranking here was 0.01 lower than Ukraine 
14. Ukraine- There’s some quiet optimism around Ukraine heading into this tournament but 65.3% have them being eliminated in the Round of 16. They have a really difficult draw (most likely Italy, Spain, or France) unless they win their group 
13. Sweden- Narrowly the third-favourites from Group E. They have some promising young talent mixed with many of the players that made the QFs at the last World Cup. They’re also not entirely unfancied in Round of 16 draws against Croatia, Belgium, Netherlands, and England 
12. Poland- Poland failed to get out of a group of four very interesting teams in the last World Cup. 69.3% have them losing in the Round of 16 against one of the same teams as Sweden in what might be Lewandowski’s last Euros 
11. Denmark- Denmark have a relatively forgiving draw if they can get 2nd in their group, which 76.9% predict them to do. They still lean on the unfavoured side of that R16 draw against the next team… 
10. Turkey- Lots of hype surrounding a team either haven’t qualified or haven’t performed in the last few tournaments. A lot of mixed opinions here but most believe they’re going to be in the knockouts, and many believe in them even more 
9. Croatia- Croatia have retained 8/11 of the starting team that carried them to the World Cup Final. Heavily favoured to get out of the groups, and 65.9% have them playing Poland or Sweden in the R16 before they most likely hit France, Portugal, or Germany in the QFs 
8. Netherlands- One person predicted Netherlands to win. Bonus points for anyone who can guess who that was 
7. Germany- Seems like unsettlement in the squad, performance hangover from 2018, and a difficult group draw have Germany polling quite low here. The highest-ranked 3rd place team and one of the best squads but the majority have them losing in the first two knockout rounds 
6. Spain- Spain result here showing the cool part of aggregating results from a bracket. 77.4% of people have them losing a quarterfinal, over 95% of those being to either England, Portugal, France, or Germany 
5. England- Everyone predicted England to get out of their group but it gets extremely difficult for them from there. This is the best England squad in well over a decade and the polls have them as the third-favourite winner over some big hitters 
4. Belgium- Belgium polled in a very normally distributed way here. Most people respect their quality– an incredible 92.4% have them winning Group B, the highest group win probability in the tournament– but have them losing out to other favourites 
3. Portugal- Difficult group draw has the Euro 2016 winners, whose overall squad is miles better than it was then, struggling in the knockout stages. They finished 3rd in their group and won the tournament in 2016, so tough draws will not deter them 
2. Italy- Five teams have been backed to win more often, but it seems like many have Italy making it far based on a relatively easy early draw. Only 10.4% of their Round of 16 draws come against Top 10 sides here, and 77.5% have them meeting Belgium in the QFs 
1. France- It’s not even close. World Cup Winners in 2018 but they’re likely still thinking about that 2016 final against Portugal. 45.7% have them winning the tournament
